AF8

While we can’t predict when earthquakes will occur, scientific research indicates there is a 75% probability of an Alpine Fault earthquake occurring in the next 50 years, and that there is a 4 out of 5 chance that it will be a magnitude 8+ event. Geological evidence also shows that the Alpine Fault has a remarkably regular history of producing large earthquakes. Over the last 8000 years, the Alpine Fault has ruptured 27 times, on average that’s every 300 years. The last significant quake on the Alpine Fault was in 1717. The next severe earthquake on the Alpine Fault is likely to occur within the lifetime of most of us, or our children.

(More about Lake Kaniere preparations and resources to come...)

According to Westland District Council Lifelines Study June 2006  in the first 60 seconds of an AF8 there are batter failures effectively blocking the back roads in many places, closing the Stafford Loop Road east of Stafford, Lake Kaniere Road east of McKay Creek, and Dorothy Falls Road along the side of Lake Kaniere.  A large landslide into Lake Kanieri off Conical Hill sends a wave across the lake, washing over the road through Hans Bay and the road and bridge at the lake outlet. Dorothy Road and Upper Kokatahi Roads are severely damaged by ground distortion and fault rupture close to the Styx River.  The Upper Styx Bridge is effectively destroyed with pier damage and the beams unseated.  There is damage throughout the Kokatahi – Kowhitiangi area from local slumping, liquefaction and bridge and culvert damage.  The Kokatahi Bridge is damaged.